Economics-Watching: Underlying Inflation Dashboard Updated

[from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, February 24, 2023]

Underlying Inflation Dashboard Updated

We’ve updated our Underlying Inflation Dashboard with data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, and the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Want to see even more economic data? The Atlanta Fed’s EconomyNow app will put GDPNow and all its data tools right in your hands. Download it today to see the latest data on inflation, growth, and the labor market.

World-Watching: Atlanta Federal Reserve Wage Growth Tracker Was 6.1 Percent in January

[from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta]

The Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker was 6.1 percent in January, the same as in December. For people who changed jobs, the Tracker in January was 7.3 percent, compared to 7.7 percent in December. For those not changing jobs, the Tracker was 5.4 percent, compared to the 5.3 percent reading in December.

The Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker is a measure of the nominal wage growth of individuals. It is constructed using microdata from the Current Population Survey (CPS), and is the median percent change in the hourly wage of individuals observed 12 months apart. This measure is based on methodology developed by colleagues at the San Francisco Fed.

The Wage Growth Tracker is updated once the Atlanta Fed’s CPS dataset is constructed (see the “Explore the Data” tab on that page). This is usually by the second Friday of the month. The exact timing depends on when the Bureau of the Census publishes the microdata from the CPS.

Stay informed of all Wage Growth Tracker updates by subscribing to the Atlanta Fed’s mailing listsubscribing to their RSS feeddownloading their EconomyNow app, or following the Atlanta Fed on Twitter. You can also build your own cuts of Wage Growth Tracker data using the CPS Data Application from CADRE or alternatively from here. Look for instructions and program files in the “Explore the Data” tab on the Wage Growth Tracker.

Economics-Watching: Fourth-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Inches Up

The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Our GDPNow forecasting model provides a “nowcast” of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. In particular, it does not capture the impact of COVID-19 and social mobility beyond their impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have already been released. It does not anticipate their impact on forthcoming economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model.

Recent forecasts for the GDPNow model are available here. More extensive numerical details—including underlying source data, forecasts, and model parameters—are available as a separate spreadsheet. You can also view an archive of recent commentaries from GDPNow estimates.

Please note that the Federal Reserve no longer supports the GDPNow app. Download the Federal Reserve’s EconomyNow app or go to the Atlanta Fed’s website to continue to get the latest GDP nowcast and more economic data.

Latest estimate: 3.9 percent — January 3, 2023

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2022 is 3.9 percent on January 3, up from 3.7 percent on December 23. After last week’s Advance Economic Indicators report from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning’s construction spending release from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth and fourth-quarter real government spending growth increased from 3.8 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively, to 6.1 percent and 1.0 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.35 percentage points to 0.17 percentage points.

Economy-Watching: U.S. Market Probability Tracker Updated with June’s Employment Data

[from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta]

The following information is now available on the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s website.

Market Probability Tracker Updated with New Employment Data
On Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released June’s employment report. Find out how this affected the market’s assessment of future rate moves at the Market Probability Tracker.

U.S. Labor Trends: Atlanta Fed’s Labor Market Tracking Tools Updated with May Data

[from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s Center for Human Capital Studies]

What do May employment data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics mean for the outlook for labor markets? Find out in the Atlanta Fed’s Labor Market Distributions Spider Chart, Jobs Calculator, and Labor Market Sliders.

Want to see even more economic data? Our EconomyNow app will put GDPNow and all our data tools right in your hands. Download it today to see the latest data on inflation, growth, and the labor market.