Looking Backwards and Forwards at the Same Time

Janus and Bi-Directional Smarts

The Roman god Janus looks backwards and forwards at the same time and learning to be somewhat Janus-like is very conducive in the metaintelligence (i.e., larger overview) quest.

There’s a useful French phrase, “reculer pour mieux sauter” which means like a high jumper, you have to take steps backwards to jump higher. In other words, learn to look bi-directionally at the world.

First look back, then forward.

Here’s a concrete example:

W. Arthur Lewis, the “father” of development economics, originally from the Caribbean, taught at Princeton. He won the Nobel in 1979 and wrote various classics such as Growth and Fluctuations, 1870-1913 (1978).

Lewis writes:

In this book we shall not be attempting to give formal or complete explanations of why fluctuations occurred. Like the captain of a ship navigating in stormy seas, we shall need to identify the waves, without needing an exhaustive theory of what causes waves.

When analyzing these fluctuations economists have identified four different cycles, distinguished by length of periodicity, each of which is named after the economist who first wrote about it:

the Kitchin (about three years)
the Juglar (about nine years)
the Kuznets (about twenty years)
the Kondratiev (about fifty years)

(W. Arthur Lewis, Growth and Fluctuations, 1870-1913, 1978, page 19)

Lewis gives us a quick overview of how we got to the era covered by his book:

“The essence of the industrial and agricultural revolutions in the first three quarters of the nineteenth century was in new ways of doing old things—of making iron, textiles and clothes, of growing cereals, and of transporting goods and services. In the last quarter of the nineteenth century the revolution added a new twist—that of making new commodities: telephones, gramophones, typewriters, cameras, automobiles and so on, a seemingly endless process whose twentieth century additions include aeroplanes, radios, refrigerators, washing machines and pleasure boats.”

(Growth and Fluctuations, 1870-1913, page 29)

Professor Norman Stone in his masterpiece on WWI calls this late nineteenth century explosion of material change and inventions the greatest fast quantum leap in world history in transforming the world.

If one reads these lines with a “Janus mind” we wonder, looking forward from the Lewis book and its era:

  1. How does his catchy metaphor of waves in the ocean relate to fluctuations and cycles? When Ben Bernanke (Fed Chair) describes recent decades as “The Great Moderation” does he mean to imply that Lewis-type waves disappeared or got much smaller?
  2. Can computers and mobile phones really match cars and planes in profundity of impact? Or is it only the tremendous spread of mobile or smartphones in the Global South that can?

In fact, the recent economic history classic, Robert Gordon’s The Rise and Fall of American Growth argues against the assumption of endless technical change as a growth accelerator or endless frontier:

In the century after the Civil War, an economic revolution improved the American standard of living in ways previously unimaginable. Electric lighting, indoor plumbing, home appliances, motor vehicles, air travel, air conditioning, and television transformed households and workplaces. With medical advances, life expectancy between 1870 and 1970 grew from 45 to 72 years. Weaving together a vivid narrative, historical anecdotes, and economic analysis, The Rise and Fall of American Growth provides an in-depth account of this momentous era. But has that era of unprecedented growth come to an end?

Gordon challenges the view that economic growth can or will continue unabated, and he demonstrates that the life-altering scale of innovations between 1870 and 1970 can’t be repeated. He contends that the nation’s productivity growth, which has already slowed to a crawl, will be further held back by the vexing headwinds of rising inequality, stagnating education, an aging population, and the rising debt of college students and the federal government. Gordon warns that the younger generation may be the first in American history that fails to exceed their parents’ standard of living, and that rather than depend on the great advances of the past, we must find new solutions to overcome the challenges facing us.

A critical voice in the debates over economic stagnation, The Rise and Fall of American Growth is at once a tribute to a century of radical change and a harbinger of tougher times to come.

  1. Why does one not read of the four cycles mentioned by Lewis (i.e., Kitchin) and the rest listed above in today’s business and financial press? Has there been some great discontinuity?

If you apply a “Janus mind” to the past (described by Lewis) and our sense of the future (described by techno-pessimists like Gordon) you get a more thoughtful sense of “the human prospect.”

Pathogens-Watching

New Articles in PLOS Pathogens

Insertive Condom-Protected and Condomless Vaginal Sex Both Have a Profound Impact on the Penile Immune Correlates of HIV Susceptibility

by Avid Mohammadi, Sareh Bagherichimeh, Yoojin Choi, Azadeh Fazel, Elizabeth Tevlin, Sanja Huibner, Zhongtian Shao, David Zuanazzi, Jessica L. Prodger, Sara V. Good, Wangari Tharao & Rupert Kaul

Summary: In heterosexual men, the penis is the primary site of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) acquisition. Levels of inflammatory cytokines in the coronal sulcus are associated with an increased HIV risk, and we hypothesized that these may be altered after insertive penile sex. Therefore, we designed the Sex, Couples and Science Study (SECS study) to define the impact of penilevaginal sex on the penile immune correlates of HIV susceptibility. We found that multiple coronal sulcus cytokines increased dramatically and rapidly after sex, regardless of condom use, with a return to baseline levels by 72 hours. The changes observed after condomless sex were strongly predicted by cytokine concentrations in the vaginal secretions of the female partner, and were similar in circumcised and uncircumcised men. We believe that these findings have important implications for understanding the immunopathogenesis of penile HIV acquisition; in addition, they have important implications for the design of clinical studies of penile HIV acquisition and prevention.

[Archived PDF]

Engineering, Decoding and Systems-Level Characterization of Chimpanzee Cytomegalovirus

by Quang Vinh Phan, Boris Bogdanow, Emanuel Wyler, Markus Landthaler, Fan Liu, Christian Hagemeier & Lüder Wiebusch

Summary: Human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) infection is associated with systemic disease in immunocompromised individuals and congenitally infected neonates. Animal CMVs and their bacterial artificial chromosome (BAC) clones have been utilized as models for CMV infection and thereby contributed immensely to the understanding of pathogenesis, host immune response and underlying molecular mechanism of CMV infections. As the closest relative to HCMV, the chimpanzee CMV (CCMV) holds a great potential as a model system for HCMV infection but its application was limited due to the lack of tools and data for functional genomic analyses. Here, the cloning of the CCMV as a BAC vector made its viral genome available to gene targeting techniques that allow the efficient application of reverse genetic strategies. Furthermore, the multi-omic datasets created in this study provide an in-depth view of the viral gene repertoire and the host cell responses to infection, confirming the close phylogenetic relationship between HCMV and CCMV on a system level. Taken together, the newly established CCMVBAC system presents a framework for HCMV modeling and comparative studies to address key questions in evolutionary processes and infection mechanisms.

[Archived PDF]

RplI Interacts with 5′ UTR of exsA to Repress Its Translation and Type III Secretion System in Pseudomonas aeruginosa

by Dan Wang, Xinxin Zhang, Liwen Yin, Qi Liu, Zhaoli Yu, Congjuan Xu, Zhenzhen Ma, Yushan Xia, Jing Shi, Yuehua Gong, Fang Bai, Zhihui Cheng, Weihui Wu, Jinzhong Lin & Yongxin Jin

Summary: Ribosomes provide all living organisms the capacity to synthesize proteins. The production of many ribosomal proteins is often controlled by an autoregulatory feedback mechanism. Paeruginosa is an opportunistic human pathogen and its type III secretion system (T3SS) is a critical virulence determinant in host infections. In this study, by screening a Tn5 mutant library, we identified rplI, encoding ribosomal large subunit protein L9, as a novel repressor for the T3SS. Further exploring the regulatory mechanism, we found that the RplI protein interacts with the 5’ UTR (5’ untranslated region) of exsA, a gene coding for transcriptional activator of the T3SS. Such an interaction likely blocks ribosome loading on the exsA 5’ UTR, inhibiting the initiation of exsA translation. The significance of this work is in the identification of a novel repressor for the T3SS and elucidation of its molecular mechanism. Furthermore, this work provides evidence for individual ribosomal protein regulating mRNA translation beyond its autogenous feedback control.

[Archived PDF]

Structure of a Bacterial Rhs Effector Exported by the Type VI Secretion System

by Patrick Günther, Dennis Quentin, Shehryar Ahmad, Kartik Sachar, Christos Gatsogiannis, John C. Whitney & Stefan Raunser

Summary: Bacteria have developed a variety of strategies to compete for nutrients and limited resources. One system widely used by Gram-negative bacteria is the T6 secretion system which delivers a plethora of effectors into competing bacterial cells. Known functions of effectors are degradation of the cell wall, the depletion of essential metabolites such as NAD+ or the cleavage of DNA. RhsA is an effector from the widespread plant-protecting bacteria Pseudomonas protegens. We found that RhsA forms a closed cocoon similar to that found in bacterial Tc toxins and metazoan teneurin proteins. The effector cleaves its polypeptide chain by itself in three pieces, namely the N-terminal domain including a seal, the cocoon and the actual toxic component which potentially cleaves DNA. The toxic component is encapsulated in the large cocoon, so that the effector producing bacterium is protected from the toxin. In order for the toxin to exit the cocoon, we propose that the seal, which closes the cocoon at one end, is removed by mechanical forces during injection of the effector by the T6 secretion system. We further hypothesize about different scenarios for the delivery of the toxin into the cytoplasm of the host cell. Together, our findings expand the knowledge of the mechanism of action of the T6 secretion system and its essential role in interbacterial competition.

[Archived PDF]

Non-Neutralizing Antibodies Targeting the Immunogenic Regions of HIV-1 Envelope Reduce Mucosal Infection and Virus Burden in Humanized Mice

by Catarina E. Hioe, Guangming Li, Xiaomei Liu, Ourania Tsahouridis, Xiuting He, Masaya Funaki, Jéromine Klingler, Alex F. Tang, Roya Feyznezhad, Daniel W. Heindel, Xiao-Hong Wang, David A. Spencer, Guangnan Hu, Namita Satija, Jérémie Prévost, Andrés Finzi, Ann J. Hessell, Shixia Wang, Shan Lu, Benjamin K. Chen, Susan Zolla-Pazner, Chitra Upadhyay, Raymond Alvarez & Lishan Su

Summary: In the past decade, HIV-1 has infected an estimated 1.5 to 2 million people every year, but vaccines needed to control this pandemic are unavailable. Among vaccines tested in the human efficacy trials, the RV144 vaccine regimen showed a modest efficacy and revealed non-neutralizing antibodies against the virus envelope glycoproteins as a correlate of reduced virus acquisition. To design more efficacious HIV-1 vaccines, a better understanding about antiviral mechanisms of these antibodies is needed. Here non-neutralizing monoclonal antibodies against two immunogenic sites on the virus envelope were evaluated for passive administration to humanized mice that were subsequently challenged with HIV-1. The antibodies did not block mucosal HIV-1 infection but reduced virus burden. The level of virus reduction correlated with the antibody binding potency and the effector functions mediated through their Fc fragments, which included antibody-dependent phagocytosis and complement activation, but not the commonly studied antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity. The importance of the Fc functions was further demonstrated by reduced virus control when mutations were introduced to decrease Fc activities. This study provides new evidence for the important contribution of multiple Fc-dependent antibody functions in immune control against HIV-1.

[Archived PDF]

Variability in an Effector Gene Promoter of a Necrotrophic Fungal Pathogen Dictates Epistasis and Effector-Triggered Susceptibility in Wheat

by Evan John, Silke Jacques, Huyen T. T. Phan, Lifang Liu, Danilo Pereira, Daniel Croll, Karam B. Singh, Richard P. Oliver & Kar-Chun Tan

Summary: Breeding for durable resistance to fungal diseases in crops is a continual challenge for crop breeders. Fungal pathogens evolve ways to overcome host resistance by masking themselves through effector evolution and evasion of broad-spectrum defense responses. Association studies on mapping populations infected by isolate mixtures are often used by researchers to seek out novel sources of genetic resistance. Disease resistance quantitative trait loci (QTL) are often minor or inconsistent across environments. This is a particular problem with septoria diseases of cereals such as septoria nodorum blotch (SNB) of wheat caused by Parastagonospora nodorum. The fungus uses a suite of necrotrophic effectors (NEs) to cause SNB. We characterized a genetic element, called PE401, in the promoter of the major NE gene Tox1, which is present in some Pnodorum isolates. PE401 functions as a transcriptional repressor of Tox1 and exerts epistatic control on another major SNB resistance QTL in the host. In the context of crop protection, constant surveillance of the pathogen population for the frequency of PE401 in conjunction with NE diversity will enable agronomists to provide the best advice to growers on which wheat varieties can be tailored to provide optimal SNB resistance to regional pathogen population genotypes.

[Archived PDF]

Mutational Analysis of Aedes aegypti Dicer 2 Provides Insights into the Biogenesis of Antiviral Exogenous Small Interfering RNAs

by Rommel J. Gestuveo, Rhys Parry, Laura B. Dickson, Sebastian Lequime, Vattipally B. Sreenu, Matthew J. Arnold, Alexander A. Khromykh, Esther Schnettler, Louis Lambrechts, Margus Varjak & Alain Kohl

Summary: Aedes aegypti mosquitoes that transmit human-pathogenic viruses rely on the exogenous small interfering RNA (exo-siRNA) pathway as part of antiviral responses. This pathway is triggered by virus-derived double-stranded RNA (dsRNA) produced during viral replication that is then cleaved by Dicer 2 (Dcr2) into virus-derived small interfering RNAs (vsiRNAs). These vsiRNAs target viral RNA, leading to suppression of viral replication. The importance of Dcr2 in this pathway has been intensely studied in the Drosophila melanogaster model but is largely lacking in mosquitoes. Here, we have identified conserved and functionally relevant amino acids in the helicase and RNase III domains of Aeaegypti Dcr2 that are important in its silencing activity and antiviral responses against Semliki Forest virus (SFV). Small RNA sequencing of SFV-infected mosquito cells with functional or mutated Dcr2 gave new insights into the nature and origin of vsiRNAs. The findings of this study, together with the different molecular tools we have previously developed to investigate the exo-siRNA pathway of mosquito cells, have started to uncover important properties of Dcr2 that could be valuable in understanding mosquito-arbovirus interactions and potentially in developing or assisting vector control strategies.

[Archived PDF]

Probing the Structure and Function of the Protease Domain of Botulinum Neurotoxins Using Single-Domain Antibodies

by Kwok-ho Lam, Jacqueline M. Tremblay, Kay Perry, Konstantin Ichtchenko, Charles B. Shoemaker & Rongsheng Jin

Summary: Botulinum neurotoxins (BoNTs) are extremely toxic to humans by causing flaccid paralysis of botulism. The catalytic light chain (LC) of BoNTs is the warhead of the toxin, which is mainly responsible for BoNT’s neurotoxic effects. As an endopeptidase, LC is delivered by the toxin to inside neurons where it specifically cleaves neuronal SNARE proteins and causes muscle paralysis. While the currently available equine and human antitoxin sera can prevent further intoxication, they do not promote recovery from paralysis that has already occurred. We strike to develop single-domain variable heavy-chain (VHH) antibodies targeting the LC of BoNT/A (LC/A) and BoNT/B (LC/B) as antidotes to inhibit or eliminate the intraneuronal LC protease. Here, we report the identification and characterization of large panels of new and unique VHHs that bind to LC/A or LC/B. Using a combination of X-ray crystallography and biochemical assays, we reveal that VHHs exploit diverse mechanisms to interact with LC/A and LC/B and inhibit their protease activity, and such knowledge can be harnessed to predict their specificity towards different toxin subtypes within each serotype. We anticipate that the new VHHs and their characterization reported here will contribute to the development of improved botulism therapeutics having high potencies and broad specificities.

[Archived PDF]

B Cell Overexpression of FCRL5 and PD-1 Is Associated with Low Antibody Titers in HCV Infection

by Clinton O. Ogega, Nicole E. Skinner, Andrew I. Flyak, Kaitlyn E. Clark, Nathan L. Board, Pamela J. Bjorkman, James E. Crowe Jr., Andrea L. Cox, Stuart C. Ray & Justin R. Bailey

Summary: Antiviral immunity relies on production of protective immunoglobulin G (IgG) by B cells, but many hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected individuals have very low levels of HCV-specific IgG in their serum. Elucidating mechanisms underlying this suboptimal IgG expression remains paramount in guiding therapeutic and vaccine strategies. In this study, we developed a highly specific method to capture HCV-specific B cells and characterized their surface protein expression. Two proteins analyzed were Fc receptor-like protein 5 (FCRL5), a cell surface receptor for IgG, and programmed cell death protein-1 (PD-1), a marker of lymphocyte activation and exhaustion. We measured serum levels of anti-HCV IgG in these subjects and demonstrated that overexpression of FCRL5 and PD-1 on memory B cells was associated with reduced anti-E2 IgG levels. This study uses HCV as a viral model, but the findings may be applicable to many viral infections, and they offer new potential targets to enhance antiviral IgG production.

[Archived PDF]

Essay 110: Education and Famine Analysis

The great historian Élie Halévy’s (died in 1937) History of the English People in the Nineteenth Century, a multi-volume classic, gives us a sense of nineteenth century famine dynamics for the 1840s, which combines failed harvests and failed incomes and failed speculations together:

“It was a ‘dearth’ (i.e., scarcity)—a crisis belonging to the old order—the last ‘dearth,’ in fact, Europe had known up to the present day (i.e., before 1937). The unsatisfactory harvest of 1845 was followed by the disastrous autumn of 1846. The potato disease was worse than it had been the year before. The cereal harvest, moderately good in 1845, was a failure not only in the United Kingdom, but in France and throughout Western Europe. In 1845, Great Britain could still purchase corn even in Ireland, while the Irish poor were starving to death. Nothing of the kind was possible at the end of 1846.

Britain could not obtain wheat from France or Germany. In short, it was no longer Ireland alone, but the whole of Western Europe that had to be saved from famine.

“The United Kingdom, France, and Germany must import Russian and American wheat, the only sources available to supply the deficit.

“In consequence the price of wheat rose from 50 shillings and 2d. on August 22 to 65 shillings and 7d. on November 18. The price of wheat rose once more. It exceeded 78 shillings in March.

“In Germany and France, where another ‘jacquerie’ seemed to have begun, hunger caused an outbreak of rioting. The same happened in Scotland and the south of England…but England suffered in common with Ireland and Continental Europe, and a drain on English gold began, to pay for the Russian and American wheat.

“Later there was a fall of 50% in four months. The corn factors (i.e., corn dealers) who for months had been gambling on a rise had no time to retrace their steps and were ruined at a single blow.” (“Commerical Failures in 1847,” Eclectic Review, December 1847)

(Élie Halévy, “Victorian Years (1841-1895),” Halévy’s History of the English People in the Nineteenth Century, Volume 4, pages 191-193, Ernest Benn Ltd., 1970)

Note that in British usage, “corn” refers to all feed grains (primarily wheat), not corn (in the American sense) or maize. For example, see the Corn Laws.

We sense from Halévy’s description of the “food insecurity” of the nineteenth century in Europe, why the Revolutions of 1848 were to a large extent severe food riots and how food poverty and speculation interacted with risk and uncertainty prevailing.

This should be read and pondered in connection with Prof. Amartya Sen’s classic from 1981, Poverty and Famines, which highlights the famine of income and buying power, as opposed to famines based on outright crop failures. Pearl Buck’s classic novel, The Good Earth (1931), fits this topic set, as it analyzes in human terms the pattern of Chinese famines. It is interesting to note, parenthetically, that the movie of The Good Earth could not feature Chinese actors in lead roles due to racial craziness at the time. Stepping back, we see a world of food insecurity aggravated by the spectre of racism further poisoning social relations worldwide.

Halévy states: “It was a ‘dearth’ (i.e., scarcity)—a crisis belonging to the old order—the last ‘dearth,’ in fact, Europe had known up to the present day…”.

It would be instructive to ponder whether this really was “a crisis belonging to the old order” given the catastrophes and food crises that could come with climate change from 2019 on out. Will we have “global ‘dearths’”?