Looking Backwards and Forwards at the Same Time

Janus and Bi-Directional Smarts

The Roman god Janus looks backwards and forwards at the same time and learning to be somewhat Janus-like is very conducive in the metaintelligence (i.e., larger overview) quest.

There’s a useful French phrase, “reculer pour mieux sauter” which means like a high jumper, you have to take steps backwards to jump higher. In other words, learn to look bi-directionally at the world.

First look back, then forward.

Here’s a concrete example:

W. Arthur Lewis, the “father” of development economics, originally from the Caribbean, taught at Princeton. He won the Nobel in 1979 and wrote various classics such as Growth and Fluctuations, 1870-1913 (1978).

Lewis writes:

In this book we shall not be attempting to give formal or complete explanations of why fluctuations occurred. Like the captain of a ship navigating in stormy seas, we shall need to identify the waves, without needing an exhaustive theory of what causes waves.

When analyzing these fluctuations economists have identified four different cycles, distinguished by length of periodicity, each of which is named after the economist who first wrote about it:

the Kitchin (about three years)
the Juglar (about nine years)
the Kuznets (about twenty years)
the Kondratiev (about fifty years)

(W. Arthur Lewis, Growth and Fluctuations, 1870-1913, 1978, page 19)

Lewis gives us a quick overview of how we got to the era covered by his book:

“The essence of the industrial and agricultural revolutions in the first three quarters of the nineteenth century was in new ways of doing old things—of making iron, textiles and clothes, of growing cereals, and of transporting goods and services. In the last quarter of the nineteenth century the revolution added a new twist—that of making new commodities: telephones, gramophones, typewriters, cameras, automobiles and so on, a seemingly endless process whose twentieth century additions include aeroplanes, radios, refrigerators, washing machines and pleasure boats.”

(Growth and Fluctuations, 1870-1913, page 29)

Professor Norman Stone in his masterpiece on WWI calls this late nineteenth century explosion of material change and inventions the greatest fast quantum leap in world history in transforming the world.

If one reads these lines with a “Janus mind” we wonder, looking forward from the Lewis book and its era:

  1. How does his catchy metaphor of waves in the ocean relate to fluctuations and cycles? When Ben Bernanke (Fed Chair) describes recent decades as “The Great Moderation” does he mean to imply that Lewis-type waves disappeared or got much smaller?
  2. Can computers and mobile phones really match cars and planes in profundity of impact? Or is it only the tremendous spread of mobile or smartphones in the Global South that can?

In fact, the recent economic history classic, Robert Gordon’s The Rise and Fall of American Growth argues against the assumption of endless technical change as a growth accelerator or endless frontier:

In the century after the Civil War, an economic revolution improved the American standard of living in ways previously unimaginable. Electric lighting, indoor plumbing, home appliances, motor vehicles, air travel, air conditioning, and television transformed households and workplaces. With medical advances, life expectancy between 1870 and 1970 grew from 45 to 72 years. Weaving together a vivid narrative, historical anecdotes, and economic analysis, The Rise and Fall of American Growth provides an in-depth account of this momentous era. But has that era of unprecedented growth come to an end?

Gordon challenges the view that economic growth can or will continue unabated, and he demonstrates that the life-altering scale of innovations between 1870 and 1970 can’t be repeated. He contends that the nation’s productivity growth, which has already slowed to a crawl, will be further held back by the vexing headwinds of rising inequality, stagnating education, an aging population, and the rising debt of college students and the federal government. Gordon warns that the younger generation may be the first in American history that fails to exceed their parents’ standard of living, and that rather than depend on the great advances of the past, we must find new solutions to overcome the challenges facing us.

A critical voice in the debates over economic stagnation, The Rise and Fall of American Growth is at once a tribute to a century of radical change and a harbinger of tougher times to come.

  1. Why does one not read of the four cycles mentioned by Lewis (i.e., Kitchin) and the rest listed above in today’s business and financial press? Has there been some great discontinuity?

If you apply a “Janus mind” to the past (described by Lewis) and our sense of the future (described by techno-pessimists like Gordon) you get a more thoughtful sense of “the human prospect.”

Essay 86: World-Watching: India

(from ICRIER Newsletter | November 2019 | Vol. III, Issue 11)

The November 2019 issue of the Newsletter provides a quick recap of ICRIER’s research and policy engagements during the month of October 2019.

Three research reports were released by ICRIER last month in the areas of competition, trade and investment and climate change (See below).

ICRIER also organized consultation workshops, dissemination and outreach events during the month. ICRIER researchers published several articles in leading newspapers and other media platforms on a variety of current issues such as growth, agriculture, trade, FTAs, RCEP, single use plastics and the Economics Nobel. We sincerely hope that you will take a few moments to glance through these updates and engage further with anything that interests you. We hope you enjoy the newsletter’s new format. As always, we welcome your valuable feedback.

Competition Issues in India’s Mobile Handset Industry

(Rajat Kathuria, Mansi Kedia and Kaushambi Bagchi)

Mobile phones have been the key to India’s technology revolution. India is the second largest mobile phone market globally, next only to China. At the end of 2018, the estimated number of smart phone users in India was 337 million, compared to 2.53 billion users worldwide. One would imagine that the exponential increase in cheaper smart phone models would displace the market for feature phones; to the contrary, feature phones continue to dominate the Indian market. While smart phone and feature phone shipments in 2018 Q3 were about the same, a comparison of growth rates shows that both phablets (large screen smartphones) and regular smartphones eclipse feature phones.

Read more (archived PDF).

Exploring Trade and Investment Opportunities between India and Select African and Asian Economies

(Anirudh Shingal, Neha Gupta, Minakshee Das, Akshaya Aggarwal and Varsha Jain)

Using descriptive statistical analysis, this study examines trade and investment opportunities between India and 41 African and Asian economies (mostly LDCs) by focusing on the latter’s export opportunities in the Indian market and on India’s investment opportunities in the selected countries. It also discusses barriers to realizing the identified trade and investment opportunities between India and the selected economies, based on a review of the existing literature.

Read more (archived PDF).

Financing Resilience against Natural Disasters

(Saon Ray, Samridhi Jain and Vasundhara Thakur)

Disaster Risk Resilience can be interpreted as global policies working for improving disaster risk reduction. The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction is the guiding principle for efforts to improve resilience worldwide. This report links the global efforts for disaster risk reduction with resilient infrastructure. The report analyses the applicability of popular instruments for emerging economies, the role of the private sector, and challenges to implementation of resilience framework. It maps the evolution and status of disaster risk financing in India.

Read more (archived PDF).

ICANN 66 Pre-Meeting Briefing

ICRIER hosted the ICANN 66 Pre-Meeting Briefing on 18th October 2019 for its Indian stakeholders. This edition of the Pre-Meeting Briefing looked closely at the developments between ICANN 65 and ICANN 66 and highlighted some of the key policy discussions currently underway at ICANN. The event witnessed participation from various stakeholders from India, including representatives from the Ministry of Electronics & Information Technology (MeitY), National Internet Exchange of India (‘.in’ registry) along with Indian representatives active in various policy development processes at ICANN. ICANN 65 was held in Montreal, Canada, between 2-7 November 2019. ICRIER will also be hosting the ICANN 66 Readout during the first week of December 2019 to highlight some of the key takeaways from ICANN 66.

Read more [archived PDF].

Dissemination of the India-LDCs Trade and Investment Study

ICRIER organised Dissemination of the Report Exploring Trade and Investment Opportunities between India and Select African and Asian Economies on October 14, 2019 at Magnolia Hall, India Habitat Centre, Lodhi Road, New Delhi.

Welcome remarks were delivered by Dr. Rajat Kathuria, Director & CE, ICRIER and the Introductory Session was Chaired by Dr. Jayant Dasgupta, IAS (Retd.) Former Ambassador of India to the WTO. Dr. Anirudh Shingal, Sr. Fellow, ICRIER presented the key findings of the report, which was followed by a Panel discussion Chaired by Dr. Arpita Mukherjee, Professor, ICRIER.

Read more [archived PDF] [Presentation PDF] [Report PDF]

Market Incentives, Direct Income Support for Farmers are far more Effective in Increasing Agricultural Productivity

(Ashok Gulati, Sakshi Gupta)

Read article [archived PDF]

Cities at Crossroads: Single-use Plastic only Part of the Challenge

(Isher Judge Ahluwalia, Almitra Patel)

Read article [archived PDF]

From Plate to Plough: Agri-Policy Lessons from China

(Ashok Gulati & Sakshi Gupta)

Read article [archived PDF]

Growth, Income, Poverty and the Nobel

(Alok Sheel)

Read article [archived PDF]

Understanding the RCEP with Rajat Kathuria

(Rajat Kathuria)

Listen to podcast [archived MP3 audio] [PDF transcript]

The Five-trillion Math

(Alok Sheel)

Read article [archived PDF]

Has PM-Kisan Belied Expectations?

(Siraj Hussain)

Read article [archived PDF]

How Government Can Control Sudden Spike in Prices of Onion and Tomato

(Ashok Gulati & Harsh Wardhan)

Read article [archived PDF]

Best of Business Standard Opinion: Corporate Tax Cuts, Pollution Challenge…

(Durgesh K. Rai)

Read article [archived PDF]

India’s Trade with its FTA Partners: Experiences, Challenges…

(Durgesh K. Rai)

Read article [archived PDF]

India’s Trade Policy Should Lend an Ear to a Wider Range of Voices

(Ujjwal Krishna & Amrita Saha)

Read article [archived PDF]

Monsoon’s Late Surge Helps, But Floods Hurt Crop Prospects

(Siraj Hussain)

Read article [archived PDF]