Meta Intelligence

World-Watching Energy: Gas Future Demand

Future of EU Gas Demand

[from E3G, by Euan Graham, Kamila Godzinska]

The EU is implementing an ambitious package of measures to reduce its reliance on Russian gas, targeting both supply and demand. REPowerEU will accelerate the EU’s move away from reliance on gas imports over the next decade.

When it comes to U.S. gas exports, while this will lead to an increased reliance on liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the short term, the outlined strategy doesn’t imply any long-term LNG market growth. The U.S. can supply Europe with sufficient LNG without building new infrastructure. New findings show that, with clean technologies and energy efficiency, EU gas demand will decline before newly proposed projects are actually completed — 15-20 years — and long payback periods mean LNG export projects may never recover the capital investment.

[LNG projects timeline] — Indicative construction and payback timelines for new LNG terminals, contrasted to additional LNG demand set out in REPowerEU. LNG demand between 2025 and 2030 reflects the potential of increased action on demand-side as set out by E3G.

Read the full briefing [archived PDF] on the future of EU gas demand.

Science-Watching: High-Energy Physics (CERN Courier – May/June 2022)

[from CERN Courier – May/June 2022, by Matthew Chalmers, editor]

As the LHC beams prepare to set new records in brightness and energy, the Courier takes an in-depth look at the Run 3 physics prospects in searches, precision measurements, flavor and heavy-ion physics. Together with a diverse fixed-target program, the LHC experiments are forging new research directions, while recent developments advance the feasibility study for a possible Future Circular Collider.

Also in the issue: a massive surprise from CDF, intriguing results at Moriond, luminosity versus energy, the CERN Neutrino Platform, International Linear Collider, and much more.

Read the May/June 2022 issue [archived PDF].

Japan-Watching: Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s Special Lecture

[from Columbia Business School’s Center on Japanese Economy and Business]

Japan’s Inflation Dynamics and the Role of Monetary Policy (April 22, 2022)

by Haruhiko Kuroda (黒田東彦), Governor, Bank of Japan (日本銀行)

Climatology-Watching: Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research

[from Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research]

UK’s climate change readiness has made ‘significant progress’

by Renee Karunungan on May 4, 2022

There is significant progress in the UK for reporting and implementing climate change adaptation, according to a new study led by Tyndall UEA’s Katie Jenkins. Katie has created an Adaptation Inventory of adaptation actions happening based on official records of adaptation projects being implemented by both public and private sector, accompanied by a systematic review of the peer-reviewed literature of adaptation case studies.

Adapting to climate change means taking action to prepare for and adjust to current and predicted effects of climate change. Adaptation plays an important role in managing past, present and future climate risk and impacts. However, there is an “adaptation gap” where the distance between existing adaptation efforts versus adaptation needs is widening, according to the United Nations Environment Programme’s Adaptation Gap Report. Tracking national adaptation plans is deemed critical to support future decision-making and drive future actions.

Studies of adaptation consider the UK at the forefront of adaptation planning, setting an early example with the Climate Change Act 2008 which contains a five-year cycle of adaptation planning, published as the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Evidence from the UK Climate Change Committee shows that adaptation action has failed to keep pace with increasing climate risks.

According to the Committee’s assessment, adaptation planning for 2C and 4C global warming is not happening, and that the gap between future risks and planned adaptation has widened, delivering the minimum level of resilience.

Katie’s new Adaptation Inventory provides insight on what is currently being implemented, which helps policymakers and practitioners learn from existing knowledge and practical case studies.

“The Adaptation Inventory provides a consistent and easily searchable database which will continue to evolve. It can provide evidence on the specific types of adaptation implemented on the ground as well as provide more detailed insight into the specific examples of action being implemented. This has the potential to help and inform UK-based decision-making,” Katie said.

The Adaptation Inventory identifies and documents current and planned adaptation in the UK, and how it is being implemented through adaptation actions, the sectors where adaptation is occurring, and where the gaps remain. There were 360 adaptation actions identified in the Inventory, comprising 134 adaptation types. Out of these 360 adaptation actions, 80% have already been implemented.

The private sector accounts for 74% of the actions with water companies dominating. Regulatory frameworks, standards, and reporting requirements are key drivers required by water companies by the Regulator. For example, water companies are already required to plan their resilience to drought.

The most common types of adaptation actions are flood protection (12%), leakage reduction (4%), water metering (3%), property level flood protection (3%), operational improvements (3%), and back-up generators (3%). Most actions were categorized as structural and physical interventions. Other interventions were categorized as technological and ecosystem based.

An example of a structural adaptation action is raising boat landings to address higher tides because of rising sea levels. For an example of technology, London Transport has installed air cooling units and mechanical chillers at two key busy tube stations to address heat stress. An ecosystem-based example introduces barley straw to reservoirs to control blue green algae, more common with warmer summers.

The Adaptation Inventory also looks at the types of climate hazards being addressed. It found that 76% of the actions were in response to drought, 26% for extreme rainfall, 13% for flooding, and 11% for higher temperatures. One example of adaptation for drought is rainwater recovery using storage facilities available on the site, reducing the demand for fresh water during drought. For alleviating flooding, a water company is using afforestation. The London Underground has doubled the capacity of ventilation shafts on the Victoria line, which provide more air flow on hot days.

Knot Theory and the Strangeness of Reality

The subfield of “knot theory” in math as a kind of geometry of “twistiness” gives us a deep “meta-intelligent” signal or lesson.

Meta-intelligent means “perspective-challenging” with or without full details of any subfield itself.

Consider this overview or comment on “knot theory” now:

“In mathematical knot theory, you throw everything out that’s related to mechanics,” Dunkel (MIT math professor) says. “You don’t care about whether you have a stiff versus soft fiber—it’s the same knot from a mathematician’s point of view. But we wanted to see if we could add something to the mathematical modeling of knots that accounts for their mechanical properties, to be able to say why one knot is stronger than another.”

But you immediately think: in the real world knots are not only twisted up in mathematically definable ways but are in fact actual shoelaces, neckties, ropes, etc, that have chemical and molecular properties before you describe their twist-and-tighten or slide-and-grip “shapes.”

Which is the real: the math or the “ropiness” of the ropes or the “laciness” of the laces?

The relationship between things and numbers is elusive.

Mathematicians have long been intrigued by knots, so much so that physical knots have inspired an entire subfield of topology known as knot theory—the study of theoretical knots whose ends, unlike actual knots, are joined to form a continuous pattern.

In knot theory, mathematicians seek to describe a knot in mathematical terms, along with all the ways that it can be twisted or deformed while still retaining its topology, or general geometry.

MIT mathematicians and engineers have developed a mathematical model that predicts how stable a knot is, based on several key properties, including the number of crossings involved and the direction in which the rope segments twist as the knot is pulled tight.

“These subtle differences between knots critically determine whether a knot is strong or not,” says Jörn Dunkel, associate professor of mathematics at MIT. “With this model, you should be able to look at two knots that are almost identical, and be able to say which is the better one.”

“Empirical knowledge refined over centuries has crystallized out what the best knots are,” adds Mathias Kolle, the Rockwell International Career Development Associate Professor at MIT. “And now the model shows why.”

As per usual in science, one is dazzled by the ingenuity of the quest and the formulations but puzzled by the larger implications since we can never decide whether math “made” us or we “made” (i.e., invented) math.

World-Watching: War and Military

Russians Make Minimal Progress in the Donbas, DOD Official Says

[from U.S. Department of Defense, by David Vergun, sent May 2 @ 3:58 PM]

Russian forces in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine—where the bulk of the fighting is taking place—are suffering from poor command and control, low morale, and less than ideal logistics, a senior Defense Department official, said today.

“We continue to see minimal, at best, progress by the Russians in the Donbas,” the official said. “They are not making the progress that they had scheduled to make and that progress is uneven and incremental.”

The Russians have had some minor gains east of the Ukrainian cities of Izyum and Popasna, the official said, adding that that progress has been anemic.

“What we saw there in Popasna is not unlike what we’ve seen in other hamlets in the Donbas. Russian forces will move in, declare victory and then withdraw their troops only to let the Ukrainians take it back. So, there was a lot of back and forth over the last couple of days,” the official said.

Also, the Pentagon has observed that Russian forces seem to have a risk and casualty aversion in both the air war and the ground war, the official said.

Ukrainian forces continue to hold Kharkiv against nearby Russian forces. The city continues to endure Russian air strikes, the official said.

“But the Ukrainians have been doing an able job over the last 24 to 48 hours of pushing the Russians further away. And they have managed to push the Russians out about 40 kilometers to the east of Kharkiv,” the official said.

That’s a good example of the stiff and formidable resistance Ukrainian forces are displaying, the official said.

Mariupol continues to get hit with standoff Russian air attacks. “We continue to see them using dumb bombs in Mariupol,” the official said, referring to ordnance that’s not precision-guided.

Regarding security assistance to Ukraine, more than 70 of 90 M-777 howitzers the U.S. planned to send are now in Ukrainian hands, along with over 140,000 155 mm rounds that these cannons use, which is about half of the projectiles planned for delivery, the official said.

Training on those weapons continues outside of Ukraine, the official added.

From the start of the invasion 68 days ago, the Russians have launched 2,125 missiles into Ukraine, the official mentioned.

Education and “Intuition Pumps”

Professor Daniel Dennett of Tufts uses the word “intuition pumps” in discussing intuitive understanding and its tweaking.

Let’s do a simple example, avoiding as always “rocket science,” where the intricacies weigh you down in advance. We make a U-turn and go back by choice to elementary notions and examples.

Think of the basic statistics curve. It’s called the Bell Curve, the Gaussian, the Normal Curve.

The first name is sort of intuitive based on appearance unless of course it’s shifted or squeezed and then it’s less obvious. The second name must be based on either the discoverer or the “name-giver” or both, if the same person. The third is a bit vague.

Already one’s intuitions and hunches are not fool-proof.

The formula for the Bell Curve is:

\begin{equation} y = \frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi}}e^{\frac{-x^2}{2}} \end{equation}

We immediately see the two key constants: π (pi) and e. These are: 22/7 and 2.71823 (base of natural logs).

The first captures something about circularity, the second continuous growth as in continuous compounding of interest.

You would not necessarily anticipate seeing these two “irrational numbers” (they “go on” forever) in a statistics graph. Does that mean your intuition is poor or untutored or does it mean that “mathworld” is surprising?

It’s far from obvious.

For openers, why should π (pi) be everywhere in math and physics?

Remember Euler’s identity: e^iπ + 1 = 0

That the two key integers (1 and 0) should relate to π (pi), e, and i ( $\sqrt{-1}$ ) is completely unexpected and exotic.

Our relationship to “mathworld” is quite enigmatic and this raises the question whether Professor Max Tegmark of MIT who proposes to explain “ultimate reality” through the “math fabric” of all reality might be combining undoubted brilliance with quixotism. We don’t know.

Education and Pre-Understanding

To embark on an education in any field, physics, say, is enervating because the student (in high school) say, enters a strange ocean with “zillions” of names and laws, units of measurement (amps, ohms, coulombs, faradays, etc.) which are very intricate and confusing.

A student does start swimming in this ocean via school “coercion” (i.e., how one will be punished for “failing.”)

There’s a much deeper and useful and practical way to create a pathway into fields: looking for a pre-understanding of what the field is like by taking one particular question or “head-scratcher” and start to delve into it, welcoming any initial sense of not-being-sure, as part of the fun of it, the enchantment.

Consider this article from 2001 in Scientific American:

“Can somebody finally settle this question: Does water flowing down a drain spin in different directions depending on which hemisphere you’re in? And if so, why?” [Archived PDF]

If you start to worry about the water swirling down your kitchen sink or bathtub, you are inevitably faced with the puzzling discussions of something called Coriolis forces, named after the French scientist of this name:

“In physics, the Coriolis force is an inertial or fictitious force that acts on objects that are in motion within a frame of reference that rotates with respect to an inertial frame. In a reference frame with clockwise rotation, the force acts to the left of the motion of the object. In one with anticlockwise (or counterclockwise) rotation, the force acts to the right. Deflection of an object due to the Coriolis force is called the Coriolis effect. Though recognized previously by others, the mathematical expression for the Coriolis force appeared in an 1835 paper by French scientist Gaspard-Gustave de Coriolis, in connection with the theory of water wheels. Early in the 20^th century, the term Coriolis force began to be used in connection with meteorology.”

The Coriolis force is called a pseudo-force or fictitious force which is already quite puzzling. It seems to push an ant walking across a 78 RPM record in motion on the turntable in unexpected ways and affects the swirling motions of storm phenomena (hurricanes, cyclones, etc.).

The student would immediately sense that at the heart of physics—using this Coriolis force as an indicator—there’s an unbelievable intricacy—but also the sense that these explanations (i.e., forces versus pseudo-forces) that are not entirely convincing and might well be overturned or re-done by someone with a deeper grasp of the problem, in the future. There’s an “ad hoc-ness” (i.e., the explanations and units and theories and proofs seem somehow “circular” or “tautological” in a way that eludes us, as we wait for a clearer theory).

A person walking across a moving merry-go-round or carousel and the complexity of the pushes and pulls experiences “shoves” that are unfamiliar and the water going down the drain in the bathtub awaits a better theory. There is a subfield called “turbulent flow” and that would need to be brought into it. Weather phenomena like tsunamis, cyclones, etc. are turbulences that are complex and our theories are both unbelievably intricate but perhaps subject to revision.

All of this might be an enchanting “gateway” into physics and would give the student a pre-understanding of physics’s “style of thinking and explaining.” In other words, to “parachute” into a field you need the parachute of some particular puzzling example which you use as a “private gateway” into the way people in that field think and act.

Just to go through the years of high school and college in an endless and mindless “slog” with the “failure gun” of coercion pointed at you, is a tremendously soul-destroying way to educate oneself. You have to “go underground” and find your own pre-understanding and its twin brother or clone, enchantment.

“Pre-Understanding” as a Pillar of Better Education

One pillar of our education enhancement effort is the concept of “pre-understanding” which argues that there usually is a step that has been skipped in education and that is the overview or guidance or “lay of the land” step that comes before courses become efficacious. To tackle a 900-page text-book seems soul-crushing in the absence of “pre-understanding” (i.e., where are we and why are we doing this) other than the coercive power of schools (grades, scholarships, recommendations, grad school admissions, etc.)?

A person senses (not incorrectly) that economics as a field of study seems tedious and solipsistic (i.e., “talking to itself” and not to the student).

Can we give students a “pre-understanding” that opens a backdoor or side window into the field, where such doors and windows were never seen or noticed?

A person is trying to decide what airline they should use in flying from Boston to Nepal.

Immediate concerns are of course price, flexibility of ticket, safety reputation of different airlines, schedules, weather forecasts, routes, etc.

A person might argue: Flight A stops in Tokyo and I can make use of that because my friend who lives in the area will put me up for a weekend, whereby we can do the town and sights, talk about old times, re-connect, etc. There’s also some other task or chore there I could do and so the Tokyo interruption is to my liking. There’s some risks associated with this (i.e., my fiancée who’s traveling with me might find it boring). I’m not sure (uncertainty).

Now suppose somebody tells you that such “decision theory” is at the heart of economics and involves four dimensions:

Whether you know it or not, you are optimizing some things (usefulness and pleasure of travel) and minimizing other things (time in the air, costs, safety risks, comfort, etc.).

You don’t realize that you’re making subtle decisional calculations where risks and uncertainties that cannot be quantified, are somehow being weighted and weighed and quantified by you, implicitly and the decision calculus is quite complicated.

Suppose you were now given to understand that economics is about economizing (i.e., budgeting your costs, benefits, risks and uncertainties, some of which are qualitative and subjective) but you find a way to assign some kind of numbers and weighting factors (i.e., importance to you) in your actual but more likely, intuitive calculations.

Goaded and prompted by this “pre-understanding” you might then pick up a standard guide to actual cost-benefit analysis (such as Mishan’s classic book) and go through this previously unseen “door” into the field without being crushed by the feeling that it’s all so tiresome in its appearance.

Similarly, if you take a math concept like the square root of minus one, think of it as an imaginary “unicorn” of the mind, then how is it that it appears constantly in all science and math such as Euler’s equation, Schrödinger’s equation, electrical engineering textbooks, etc.

How can something so elusive be so useful?

This “pre-understanding” quest or detour or episode could give you, the student, a deep nudge through a hidden window or door into “math world.”
Without this “trampoline of pre-understanding,” an “ocean of math intricacy” seems to loom before you.

Education: Disease, History and Lit

The Italian writer Giovanni Boccaccio lived through the plague as it ravaged the city of Florence in 1348. The experience inspired him to write The Decameron.

The Plague of 1665 in England was a major upheaval affecting Isaac Newton’s life.

The 1984 movie, A Passage to India (David Lean) set in 1920s India, has a scene where the ever-present lethal threat of cholera is discussed as Doctor Aziz lies sick of a fever.

The W. Somerset Maugham novel, The Painted Veil (2006 movie) is also about cholera in the Chinese countryside in the 1920s.

Manzoni’s 1827 The Betrothed, the most famous classic novel of Italian literature, centers on the plague to drive the story.

Overview:

Etymologically, the term “pest” derives from the Latin word “pestis” (pest, plague, curse). Hardly any disease had such cultural and historical relevance as the bubonic plague. Throughout the centuries, the plague was the most terrifying infectious contagious disease which generated a series of demographic crises. The plague epidemics influenced the evolution of society biologically and culturally speaking. The Black Death was one of the most devastating pandemics in human history, is estimated to have killed 30%–60% of Europe’s population, reducing the world’s population from an estimated 450 million to between 350 and 375 million in 1400. This has been seen as having created a series of religious, social and economic upheavals, which had profound effects on the course of European history. It took 150 years for Europe’s population to recover.

The plague returned at various times, killing more people, until it left Europe in the 19^th century. Modern epidemiology (Dr. John Snow, London) has its roots in cholera management and water sanitation as well as waste management.

Education involves seeing disease as a major protagonist in all history and not as a footnote.

The classic Plagues and Peoples should accordingly be studied by every student: Plagues and Peoples is a book on epidemiological history by William Hardy McNeill, published in 1976.

It was a critical and popular success, offering a radically new interpretation of the extraordinary impact of infectious disease on cultures and world history itself.