Our oil price decomposition, reported weekly, examines what’s behind recent fluctuations in oil prices: demand factors, supply factors, or some combination of the two?
(from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
Oil prices increased over the past week, mostly owing to lower supply.
- Over the past week, a decrease in anticipated supply and, to a lesser extent, an increase in demand expectations resulted in higher oil prices. In 2021:Q4, oil prices decreased as increased anticipated supply outstripped the effect of an improving demand outlook.
- In 2021:Q3, oil prices rose owing to increased demand and decreased supply. Rising demand expectations were the main cause of higher oil prices in 2021:Q1 and 2021:Q2. In 2020:Q1, oil prices plummeted owing to decreased demand and increased supply, whereas in 2020:Q2, oil prices rose owing to increased demand. Increased supply led to falling oil prices in 2020:Q3, and this reversed in 2020:Q4, as oil prices rose owing to increased demand and decreased supply.
- Overall, between 2014 and 2017, both lower global demand expectations and higher anticipated supply held oil prices down. Since mid-2017, this trend reversed as stronger demand expectations and stabilizing anticipated supply drove oil prices higher. This lasted until 2018:Q4, when weaker demand lowered prices. Oil prices rose in 2019 due to increasing demand expectations.
Read the full report [Archived PDF].
View the data [Archived Excel XLS].