Tag: natural gas in Russia

World-Watching Energy: Gas Future Demand

Future of EU Gas Demand

[from E3G, by Euan Graham, Kamila Godzinska]

The EU is implementing an ambitious package of measures to reduce its reliance on Russian gas, targeting both supply and demand. REPowerEU will accelerate the EU’s move away from reliance on gas imports over the next decade.

When it comes to U.S. gas exports, while this will lead to an increased reliance on liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the short term, the outlined strategy doesn’t imply any long-term LNG market growth. The U.S. can supply Europe with sufficient LNG without building new infrastructure. New findings show that, with clean technologies and energy efficiency, EU gas demand will decline before newly proposed projects are actually completed — 15-20 years — and long payback periods mean LNG export projects may never recover the capital investment.

[LNG projects timeline]
Indicative construction and payback timelines for new LNG terminals, contrasted to additional LNG demand set out in REPowerEU. LNG demand between 2025 and 2030 reflects the potential of increased action on demand-side as set out by E3G.

Read the full briefing [archived PDF] on the future of EU gas demand.

Bruegel Publication Alert: The EU-Russia-China Energy Triangle

Policy Contribution

(from Bruegel)

By Georg Zachmann

Concern is growing in the European Union that a rapprochement between Russia and China could have negative implications for the EU.

We argue that energy relations between the EU and Russia and between China and Russia influence each other. We analyze their interactions in terms of four areas: oil and gas trading, electricity exchanges, energy technology exports and energy investments.

We discuss five key hypotheses that describe the likely developments in these four areas in the next decade and their potential impact on Europe:

  1. There is no direct competition between the EU and China for Russian oil and gas.
  2. China and the EU both have an interest in curbing excessive Russian energy rents.
  3. The EU, Russia and China compete on the global energy technology market, but specialize in different technologies.
  4. Intercontinental electricity exchange is unlikely.
  5. Russia seems more worried about Chinese energy investments with strategic/political goals than about EU investments.

Read the full report [Archived PDF].